HS2: What is the route and why is the Manchester link in doubt?

There is speculation that the HS2 high-speed rail link between Birmingham and Manchester could be scrapped.

HS2 is intended to create high-speed rail links between London and major cities in the Midlands and North of England.

It is aimed at cutting journey times, creating more space on the rail network and more jobs outside London.

But HS2 has faced delays, spiralling costs and cuts.

HS2 was meant to connect London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds.

Lots of work has been done on the section linking London and Birmingham.

It decided to upgrade existing routes for HS2 trains, instead of building new ones.

In June, the government said it would still build HS2 from London Euston to Manchester and the East Midlands.

The 13-mile (21km) Golborne Link to connect HS2 and the West Coast Main Line in Cheshire and Greater Manchester has already been scrapped.

Speaking to the BBC from the Conservative party conference, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he had not yet taken a final decision on the Birmingham-Manchester leg and would not be “forced into” a premature one.

The government says HS2 will cut Birmingham to London journey times from one hour 21 minutes, to 52 minutes.

HS2 would also take an hour off Manchester to London journeys – from just over two hours to just over one hour.

Travelling from London to Leeds currently takes two hours and 13 minutes. Under the original HS2 plans it would have taken one hour and 21 minutes. The latest proposals mean it will take one hour and 53 minutes.

Questions are also being asked about whether HS2 will ever reach Euston in central London. Demolition work was paused amid rising costs.

Without Euston, trains would never go further than Old Oak Common in West London.

If HS2 stops at Old Oak Common, passengers would travel on to central London and other destinations via the Elizabeth Line.

Old Oak Common is only designed to take six HS2 trains an hour, whereas Euston was meant to accommodate up to 18 trains an hour.

HS2 Ltd says scrapping Euston would mean Manchester only got one of its trains per hour.

The cost of the project, the biggest of its kind in Europe, has grown.

The first estimate in 2010 was for about £33bn.

The government’s most recent official estimate is about £71bn. This doesn’t include what’s left of the Eastern leg, from Birmingham to the East Midlands.

It allows up to £7bn for Birmingham to Crewe, and up to £19bn for Crewe to Manchester.

But this is all in 2019 prices, so it does not account for inflation, which has meant rising costs for things like materials and wages.

Long-time HS2 critic Lord Berkeley, who was vice-chair of the review, said HS2 is now more likely to cost around £180bn.

Some £24.7bn has been spent on HS2, as of February 2023.

This includes at least £22.5bn on Phase 1 and £2.3bn on Phase 2, including on the purchase of more than 400 properties between Birmingham and Manchester.

HS2 was due to open by 2026.

Under current plans, HS2 trains would carry their first passengers between Old Oak Common and Birmingham, between 2029 and 2033.

The stretches of line to Crewe and then to Manchester are due by 2036 and 2041.

Euston station would be ready when the full line opens.

The government has not said whether separate plans for Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) will go ahead if HS2 to Manchester is cancelled.

The line aims to improve connections between Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool, with a mix of new and upgraded lines.

It also uses a section of the HS2 line from Manchester Airport to Manchester Piccadilly, the city’s main station.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said scrapping the Manchester link “rips the heart” out of NPR.

The northern leg of HS2 is also meant to relieve congestion on the busy West Coast mainline.

The HS2 project says it could provide “zero carbon rail travel” and create new wildlife habitats along its route.

However, environmental campaigners and conservation organisations have objected.

Wildlife Trusts said the project will “destroy huge swathes of irreplaceable natural habitat and important protected wildlife sites”, including 108 ancient woodlands.